putin war ukraine russia conflict

Royal flush or an Opportunistic bluff? Putin’s military intentions in Ukraine

It is hard to see the bigger picture of an unsolved jigsaw with a few pieces missing. Unfortunately, the conflict between Kremlin and Ukraine is a puzzle that is yet to be solved.

We knew this was coming. Many experts believe that Putin wants a ‘replay of the end of the Cold War’ by taking another bite out of Ukraine.

“George, you have to understand that Ukraine is not even a country. Part of its territory is in Eastern Europe and the greater part was given to us.” These were the ominous words of President Vladimir Putin of Russia to President George W. Bush in Bucharest, Romania, at a NATO summit in April 2008.

The retired K.G.B. agent is a one-man psychodrama, who simply refuses to come in from the cold and still sees the C.I.A. under every rock and behind every opponent.

Putin always measures Russia’s status in the world in relation to the US. And somewhere in the balance of all of those identities and neuroses is the answer to what Putin intends to do with Ukraine. This time, Mr. Putin’s aim is bigger than closing NATO’s “open door” to Ukraine and taking more territory — he wants to evict the United States from Europe. As he might put it: “Goodbye, America. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”

Invading Ukraine will also increase his chances of remaining in power in Russia, which is always a priority for him. Putin is also obsessed with history and if you are a keen observer you might see why he choose Ukraine and why now….

December 2021 marked the 30th anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union when Russia lost its dominant position in Europe. Mr. Putin wants to give the United States a taste of the same bitter medicine Russia had to swallow in the 1990s.

The war has started and it could get much worse any minute. Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine even though for months Putin assured that Russia won’t invade Ukraine, at the last minute Putin flipped the peace deal showing a middle finger to the west by sending troops inside Ukraine from east north, and south. The situation escalated quickly, and if there is any further provocation from the west it might lead to a catastrophic nuclear war.
With every second the tension is rising, and with more countries joining the war, directly and indirectly, it’s hard to tell who is playing the winning hand. But there is one thing for certain, it will be all loss for humanity. For now, almost all NATO countries have shown their support for Ukraine. Countries have started to send military aid as Moscow is sending more troops to Ukraine. And it’s not just military aid, the United States has imposed its harshest sanctions against Russia and its Central bank, freezing all their assets which lead to a financial meltdown.
As of now, the civilian death toll has risen to 352 which includes 14 children. Meanwhile, Russia and the west have been trying to talk it out to de-escalate the situation. Moscow also held a high-level talk with Kyiv but it ended up with no agreement. During the five-hour talk, Ukrainian delegates asked for an immediate ceasefire to which Russia responded by continuous shelling and sending a 40-mile-long Russian convoy into Ukraine. Recent US Intel suggests that the battle for Kyiv will be long and bloody. With this invasion of Ukraine, Russia has signaled the beginning of the end of the post cold war world order, and yes the global power is shifting.
So you might be wondering what triggered this sudden struggle between the two nations and what the west have to do with it. Before we understand what provoked Putin to say Fuck you to the West and Invade Ukraine, we have to understand Russia and the history behind its regional domination and how it played out over the years with Putin on the throne.
First, let’s talk about the premise of a Russian invasion. In December Russia started to station troops near the Ukraine border. Even though they said that it was a military exercise, we all knew what was coming. While the tension between the kremlin and Kyiv was rising, Russia proposed a list of security guarantees to lower the tension in Europe and defuse the crisis over Ukraine. The first thing that they wanted was a ban on Ukraine from entering NATO.
They also suggested that NATO stop expanding and retreat all their troops and weapons from Nato’s eastern flank. Even though some might argue, to the west these demands were ridiculous. So Russia started to gear up its military activities near the border. Meanwhile, Biden reassured Ukraine’s president that the US will respond decisively if Russia invades Ukraine.
So why now?
Putin is obsessed with history as he is obsessed with Russia and to say precisely Soviet union. December 2021 was the 30th anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It is when Russia lost its dominant position in Europe. On December 1991 Gorbachev announced the dissolution of the Soviet Union. He said after 74 years of being as one of the world’s most powerful nations the Soviet Union no longer exist and would break up into 15 separate countries.
To this day, Putin thinks of Ukraine as an undivided part of Russia. To him, the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitics catastrophe of the 20th century” So when this time Russia heard whispers about Ukraine joining NATO, Mr. Putin thought of it as an opportunity not just to close Natos open door but also to evict the United States from the Easter Europe and say don svidaniya forever. Russia wants to end the United States’ global hegemony and give them a taste of their own medicine.
But invading Ukraine can have devastating consequences for all parties. There are human lives at stake and the EU will have to deal with another migrant crisis. Millions of people have already fled their homes and looking for refuge in other European countries.
Now we know what is happening in Russia and you probably know the media narrative of it. But let’s talk about the part that our mainstream media decided to ignore. Yes, this is the part where Putin is not the only one to be blamed. Before we look at the chronology let’s first discuss what actually happened.
As Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and Kyiv is said to be the birthplace of modern-day Russia, it is no surprise that there is a lot of Russian influence in their culture. Ukraine basically has a similar culture, similar weather conditions, and a lot of other similarities with Russia. And a lot of people in the Eastern side of Ukraine even speak Russian. I know this may be an unpopular opinion but in so many ways Ukraine is still a part of Russia culturally. Now let’s talk about the cause of this conflict. What actually trigged this invasion?
The invasion of Ukraine started in February 2021 but the real cause of this conflict dates back to February 2014. You might blame it all on Putin but North Atlantic treaty organization or NATO’s role was to deter the expansion of the Soviet Union. Russia is the largest country in the world. Russia is a transcontinental country spanning eastern Europe and northern Asia. Russia extends across 11 time zones and borders sixteen sovereign nations.

Written by Mustafizur Rahman

Mustafizur Rahman is a member of the Daccanomics editorial team.

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