Daccanomics
We’re a few days away from capping off awards season with the Oscars, which take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Feb. 9. And it’s about to get a lot more intense when all the A-listers will be there at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Feb. 9. While every eye will be on the screen waiting to see their favorite win, the Oscars is already creating a buzz with their nominations. Everyone is talking about who might take home the Oscars.
Predicting the winner of the Academy Award for Best Picture is never easy. Anything can change last minute (not talking about the Moonlight-La La Land mixup) and all of our predictions might go wrong. Last time we were pretty sure that the top prize in the 2019 Oscars would go to “Roma” but it was “Green Book” that won.
For a few weeks now, the forecast for the 92nd Academy Awards has been consistent: a sweep for Sam Mendes’s widely admired First World War film 1917, as foreshadowed by its seven wins at the Baftas last Sunday evening.
There are so many unanswered questions. Will Parasite do what Roma couldn’t a year ago and become the first foreign language film to take home the best picture Oscar? Or will Netflix collect its very first best picture trophy? Or could a movie with a yellow Metascore somehow be named the year’s best picture? Or will 1917 simply take home everything?
Well, at least we can be certain of one thing: Joaquin Phoenix will win best actor for his blistering performance as Arthur Fleck in Joker. Phoenix has swept the best lead actor categories across awards season, from the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards to the BAFTAs.
For films like “Joker” and “Marriage Story,” the journey to the Oscars began five months ago with their premieres in Venice. “1917” had the least amount of time on the campaign trail: The Sam Mendes war movie didn’t start screening until late November.
In the end, however, it all comes down to one date: Feb. 9, when the movie industry celebrates its biggest night at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.
We think the competition for the best picture is really between these two incredible films, 1917 and Parasite. Now the question arises, which one among them. Well, let’s find out.
Leading Contenders
“1917” (Universal – December 25)Writer/Director: Sam MendesCast: Dean-Charles Chapman, George MacKayPlot: Set against the backdrop of the last full year of World War I.
“Parasite” (Neon – October 11)Director: Bong Joon-hoWriters: Bong Joon-ho, Han Jin-wonCast: Song Kang-ho, Lee Sun-kyun, Cho Yeo-jeong, Choi Woo-shik, Park So-damPlot: All unemployed, Ki-taek’s family takes peculiar interest in the wealthy and glamorous Parks for their livelihood until they get entangled in an unexpected incident.
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Sony – July 26)Writer/Director: Quentin TarantinoCast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Margot RobbiePlot: A faded TV actor and his stunt double strive to achieve fame and success in the film industry in 1969.
Strong Contenders
“Jojo Rabbit” (Fox Searchlight – October 18)Writer/Director: Taika Waititi (who adapted the novel “Caging Skies” by Christine Leunens)Cast: Roman Griffin Davis, Thomasin McKenzie, Rebel Wilson, Stephen Merchant, Alfie Allen, Sam Rockwell, Scarlett Johansson, WaititiPlot: A young boy in Hitler’s army finds out his mother is hiding a Jewish girl in their home.
“Joker” (Warner Bros. – October 4)Director: Todd PhillipsWriters: Todd Phillips, Scott SilverCast: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert De Niro, Zazie Beetz, Frances ConroyPlot: A failed stand-up comedian is driven insane and becomes a psychopathic murderer.
Possible Contenders
“The Irishman” (Netflix – November 1; streams Nov. 27)Director: Martin ScorseseWriter: Steven Zaillian (who adapted “I Heard You Paint Houses” by Charles Brandt)Cast: Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Harvey Keitel, Anna Paquin.Plot: A mob hitman recalls his possible involvement with the slaying of Jimmy Hoffa.
“Little Women” (Sony – December 25)Writer/Director: Greta Gerwig (who adapted Louisa May Alcott’s novel of the same name)Cast: Saoirse Ronan, Florence Pugh, Timothee Chalamet, Emily Watson, Meryl StreepPlot: Four sisters come of age in America in the aftermath of the Civil War.
“Marriage Story” (Netflix – November 6; streams December 6)Writer/Director: Noah BaumbachCast: Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, Laura DernPlot: The story follows an unfolding divorce that spans from New York City to Los Angeles.
“Ford v. Ferrari” (20th Century Fox – November 15)Director: James MangoldWriters: James Mangold, Jason Keller, Jez Butterworth, John-Henry ButterworthCast: Christian Bale, Matt Damon, Caitriona Balfe, Jon Bernthal, Remo GironePlot: The true story of the battle between Ford and Ferrari to win Le Mans in 1966.
The Final Prediction
‘1917’ will win the ‘Best Picture’ and ‘Parasite’ will surely win the ‘Best International Feature Film’ if not the ‘best picture’.
“1917”
1917 Directed by Sam Mendes already won the accolade for ‘Best Motion Picture’ and ‘Best Director’ at the Golden Globes. It also took home the ‘BAFTA Award for Best Film’ and ‘BAFTA Award for Best Direction’. Which makes it pretty clear that it has the upper hand at the Oscars 2020.
“Parasite”
Parasite the South Korean film from director Bong Joon Ho called a thriller, a drama, horror and a dark comedy about the class divide all in the same breath — stands to be a historic best picture winner if it comes to fruition. This is one of the most talked-about films. And if you still haven’t seen the film yet, what are you doing with your life.
Again, it’s between “Parasite” and “1917.” Both deserve the ultimate prize, but expect a repeat of last year, when “Roma” won international (then known as foreign language) and the film’s helmer, Alfonso Cuarón, took director. Throughout awards season, I never heard a peep of criticism about “Parasite.” However, a foreign language film has never won both international and best picture. Besides, war movies have a strong history of earning the evening’s top honor. The roster includes “Platoon,” “The English Patient,” “The Hurt Locker,” “From Here to Eternity” and “Patton” to name just a few. “1917” will more than likely be added to the list on Feb. 9.
But the experts don’t exactly have a great track record at picking the best picture winner, and this year they appear to be less confident than a year ago (when they incorrectly selected Roma). However, in recent years, the eventual best picture winner has typically been the experts’ 2nd-place choice if not their first. In other words, don’t bet on any film other than 1917 or Parasite taking home the top prize (with the possible exception of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). And before you start thinking that the top two prizes should go to the same film, remember that the Academy is definitely capable of splitting the director and best picture awards, having done so in three of the last four years.
So get ready for the Oscars race and don’t be stunned to see something interesting!
